Sandusky, OH 2007: The State of Ohio has presented difficult navigation for Presidential candidates over the past several election cycles. Many try to climb its ladders only to twist and spill far from victory. With its 18 electoral votes, “The Heart of it All” State stands once again in the path of the contenders.
From Trent Ling:
With Election 2012 only three weeks away, with the second of three Presidential debates on tap tonight, and with the race for the White House shaping up as a dead-heat, may all gather a clearer look today at the few remaining States that will decide the eventual victor. Evaluating the latest and trending polling data surveyed by Real Clear Politics , considering recent election history, factoring demographic shifts in the census, and incorporating polling swings already in this election cycle, only five States remain fully in play and up for grabs: Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Without any further shift in national polling or sentiment, these five States stand as the last of the independents that could swing in either direction on November 6. Unless some event or series of events tilts the race nationally toward one of the candidates, these five States will decide the Presidential victor.
Based upon numbers from allocated States in the box below, in the race to 270 electoral votes Mitt Romney has 248 electoral votes (26 States) and Barack Obama has 247 electoral votes (19 States). Thus, to win, Romney needs 22 more electoral votes and Obama needs 23 more electoral votes. And those needs must come from the five States and their electoral payloads:
Ohio 18
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
Any combination of 22 electoral votes for Romney gives him the Presidency, while any combination of 23 electoral votes for Obama retains the White House for him.
Much talk will continue of the States already allocated below. Obviously, should one candidate “steal” another’s allocated State (e.g., if Obama were to win Florida), then the entire election would very likely and nearly assuredly go in that direction. The five-State toss-up outlined here assumes today’s dead-heat polling to the wire. In such event, everyone now knows which five States to watch and which numbers will cinch the deal for either candidate.
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Mila, they had a mock presidential debate in Indonesia at one of their colleges. It was such a reminder of how this election is so pivotal and how small our world really is, here’s the link should anyone want to read more on it http://www.npr.org/2012/10/22/163419374/in-election-indonesia-watches-u-s-economic-policy
As always, thanks for helping me cut through the thicket.
Thank you for educating me on this, Om Trent! I watched the debate and clearly understand why we need to understand what’s going on, otherwise we’d be living like a goon trying to figure out how to navigate living in a country as we are in the world, though not of the world. Thanks! I will try assessing similarly for Indo and China.
See, I’ve never understand how this poll thing works! Actually I had never really paid close attention to the election like I have now with the 2012 election – hopeful for a better America 🙂 Thanks for educating us to understand how the election runs. Thanks for the cheat sheet!
Awesome! As a foreigner, this cheat sheet makes the run for the White House understandable for me. Quite exciting and nerve-wracking at the same time! Hey, does Hugo Chavez’ fictitious vote for Obama count in the polls :)? Lol!